Super Bowl Prediction Indianapolis (-5) vs. New Orleans: Saints Steal The Show

The final football game of the year kicks off tonight as the Indianapolis Colts (16-2) square off against the New Orleans Saints (15-3) in Miami for the Super Bowl. The Colts and MVP QB Peyton Manning are looking for their second Lombardi trophy in 4 years while the Saints are appearing in the first Super Sunday of the franchise's 43-year history. Both teams are loaded with playmakers and it's no secret the game will come down to the duel between Manning and Saints QB Drew Brees. These teams are dead even in my mind as far as talent goes but many analysts are picking the Colts because of the experience and resume of Peyton Manning. I think both Manning and Brees will play well but both will be rattled by the opposing defense at times. I believe the winner of this game will be the team that can cash in on their opponents mistakes because they won't happen often. This will be one of the first Super Bowls in recent history where one team isn't heavily favored over the other and this is truly a game that will be decided by only a handful of plays. I'm giving the edge to the Saints in this one because I feel the health of Colts All-Pro DE Dwight Freeney will be the X-Factor.

I think you can throw out a lot of stats and numbers in thinking about this game because both teams have a stable of offensive play-makers who will give both defenses fits all day. Expect this game to play out much like the NFC Championship game two weeks ago where the Saints took advantage of a Brett Favre turnover late and won the game in overtime. It is still unclear if Freeney will be able to play tonight due to an ankle injury but I believe that regardless of whether or not he plays, the 8-year pro won't be effective if he's in pain. The loss of pressure a healthy Freeney generates will have a ripple effect on the rest of the Colts defense. The Colts D has been successful despite its rather no-name roster because Freeney allows the team to pressure the quarterback without blitzing thus freeing up extra defenders and creating good match-ups. Everyone gives Manning credit for leading the Colts to a victory in Super Bowl XLI over the Bears but that defense was lead by S Bob Sanders who was the missing link in a championship run. Dwight Freeney now has the same role Sanders had in 2006 and if he cannot play at the top of his game I think the rest of the Colts D will falter and give Drew Brees an advantage. Then again if Freeney does play and plays well, he can be the hero and have the honor of telling the world he's going to Disney World at game's end.

I am also drawn to the Saints because they have shown the ability to rally and win close football games throughout the entire season. I saw this team come back from a 24-3 deficit after 3 Brees interceptions to beat the Dolphins 46-34, turn a Brees interception into a WR Robert Meachem fumble recovery for a TD in a 33-30 OT win over the Redskins, steal an NFC title from Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings and go 4-0 against the AFC this year. I really feel that all the intangible things that make a great team into the best team are happening for the Saints. They've gotten so many breaks this year that is has to be more than coincidence so I'm going with my gut in this one:

Saints beat Colts 31-29