The NFC games next weekend will see the New Orleans Saints (14-3) travel to play the San Francisco 49ers (13-3) on Saturday while the defending champion Green Bay Packers (15-1) will host the surging New York Giants (10-7) on Sunday.
The Packers/Giants game on Sunday looks to me like a carbon copy of the Giants Super Bowl 42 victory of the then 18-0 New England Patriots. The Packers got hot last season after an up-and-down, injury-plagued start before going on a playoff tear and winning the Super Bowl. Riding that wave of momentum the Packers started out 13-0 and finished with the best record in the league despite finishing dead last in defense. The key for the Packers has been their +24 turnover ratio and their prolific offense of course lead by the spectacular play of QB Aaron Rodgers (4,643 yds, 45 TDs, 6 INTs, NFL record 122.5 QB rating). The Giants on the other hand remind me a great deal on not only their 2007 team that got hot in the playoff but also the Packers on last season. The Giants were decimated by injuries this year early but still managed a 6-2 before losing 4 straight but finished with 3-1 record to pull out the NFC crown with a 9-7 record. The G-Men are easily playing their best ball of the year thanks in large part to their defensive line being fully healthy for the first time all year. Their D-Line was what carried them to the Super Bowl in 2007 and they seem to have finally regained the ability to dominate the line of scrimmage like they did 4 years ago which was on display in force during their 24-2 beat-down of the Atlanta Falcons in the first round. In addition to their defense, Eli Manning has played the best football of his career all season long and has truly taken his game to the next level.
The Packers have been the favorite to win the NFC since before the season began and most everyone still thinks that to be the case. I am not of them. This Packers team reminds of the Giants in 2008 who started the season 11-1 as the defending champs but clearly peaked too early and were done in by their flaws. Although that Giant team finished the season as the number 1 seed they were bounced out of the playoffs in their first game in rather uninspired fashion by the a hot Eagles team 23-11 at home. I think this Packers team also peaked too early this year and despite finishing with an NFL best 15-1 record they will lose to a hot Giants team. The Packers' one loss came at the hand of the KC Chiefs who succeeded by getting lots of pressure on Rodgers with their front 4 causing him to rush his game and become erratic. That game played out much like the 2007 Giants win over the Patriots in which the NFL's best offense was held to 14 points because the Giants got pressure on QB Tom Brady all day long. The Giants' strengths coming into this game are their ability to get after the QB with just their D-Line (Osi, Tuck, JPP = 'nuff said) and their passing attack lead by Manning and WRs Hakeem Nicks (6 rec for 115 and 2 TDs against Atlanta) and breakout star Victor Cruz who set the franchise record for receiving yards this year. The Packers have the worst pass defense in the NFL and Eli Manning has protected the football better this season that at any other point in his career. Look for Rodgers to be on the ground a lot in this game which has proven to greatly diminish his accuracy (he may also be without top WR Greg Jennings in this game, remember the 2008 Giants team lost top WR Plaxico Burress after their 11-1 start). The Giants have also been at their best this year when they are getting huge plays in the passing game from Nicks and Cruz. I can keep going on and on about why I think the Giants will win but more than anything I see momentum and Health being key factors, having TE Jake Ballard back and at full strength paid immediate dividends against Atlanta.
A final note on why I'm picking the Giants to win this game and face New Orleans in the NFC Title Game is that, for everything Aaron Rodgers has accomplished in his career, can you think of any real signature come-from-behind wins when things looked their most bleak? I can't and at the same time can name multiple such 4th Quarter performances from Manning just this season alone. This game is going to be close one way or another and neither team will get more than a 10 point lead. It was barely a month ago that Eli almost took out the Packers and tied the game at 35-35 late before the depleted defense allowed a long pass play in the final minute setting the Pack up for a game-winning FG attempt. This will be different his time with Rodgers being the one who has to try and tie the game late but it will be Eli Manning's final drive of the game that decides the outcome (perhaps even in OT).
Final Score: Giants 30 - Packers 26
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