Super Bowl Prediction: Steelers/Packers

With the conclusion of yet another supremely high-scoring yet equally unwatchable Pro Bowl, Super Bowl week has officially kicked off. In thinking about this game I've decided that nothing is really going to change in the next week so I'm making my prediction a full 7 days beforehand. For me this game really just comes down to how these teams have played all year and I believe the Super Bowl will be a microcosm of how each team has gone about winning or losing big games in 2010.

Looking at the match-ups I think Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will be in control and dictating the flow of play for a majority of the contest. The Packers come in firing on all cylinders and riding the kind of Wild Card hot streak that reminds us of the Giants championship run back in 2007; they have won what amounts to 5 consecutive elimination games to reach this point the last 4 of which have been on the road and all have been quite convincing. Rodgers is solidifying his place among the elite QBs in the NFL and is surrounded with a bevy of offensive talent highlighted by receiver Greg Jennings and recently augmented by rookie free agent RB James Starks.

The Steelers enter the contest with a similar team to their 2005 and 2008 championship teams and look poised for their 3rd win in 6 seasons. Pittsburgh is experienced on both sides of the ball and have the kind of game breakers who can shift momentum with a single play (notably LBs James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley along with safety Troy Polamalu on defense; WRs Hines Ward and Mike Wallace and power RB Rashard Mendenhall on offense). The only real question mark here is the health of the Offensive Line and its most recent casualty rookie Pro Bowler Maurkice Pouncey who by many accounts appears unlikely to play. The Steelers have survived a series of OL injuries but Pouncey's will be the toughest to overcome. With 2 weeks to prepare I don't believe there will be too many problems with the Center to QB transfers like we saw in the AFC Championship but the inexperience on the OL will provide opportunities for Green Bay's pass rush lead by LB Clay Matthews and DL B.J. Raji. I think the Packers will cause enough disruption in the Steelers backfield to allow their offense to take control early.


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The Steelers D has been most successful in shutting down opposing team's rushing attack but prior to the last 3 games the Packers have survived practically the entire season without an effective running game and should not be overly perturbed. I see the Packers scoring an early touchdown or two and then retaining a 7-10 lead up until the 4th Quarter. The Packers have struggled all season in putting teams away even though they have outplayed them all game (just look at their playoff wins against Philadelphia and Chicago, they were only saved by late interceptions on ill-advised passes). The Steelers have a good enough defense to keep them in this game with some turnovers and sacks and Green Bay's failure to run the ball in late-game situations will hurt them in this one.

My bold prediction is that while Green Bay will control this game until midway in the 4th Quarter, the Steelers will score with less 8 or 9 minutes left in the game to make it a one possession game. Green Bay will not be able to run out the clock and QB Ben Roethlisberger will get one last chance with around 2:00-2:30 left on the clock. I ask you to find a better 2-minute QB in the NFL over the past 10 years than Big Ben, if you can it means you probably forgot Super Bowl XLIII or even the AFC divisional playoffs a couple of weeks ago against the Baltimore Ravens.

Super Bowl XLV Final Score: Steelers 26 - Packers 24