Conference Championship Preview: New York Jets (+8.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

There is a lot to say about this week's 16 rematch but I think this matchup comes to down to Peyton Manning's experience and play-calling against Rex Ryan's exotic defensive schemes. I don't think we can take a lot from the previous contest between these teams in week 16 where the Colts laid down midway through the 3rd quarter and cracked the playoff door open for the Jets. The Colts have been a dominant team all season in head coach Jim Caldwell's first season winning their first 14 games before resting their starters. The rest proved helpful last week as Manning and the Colts defense patiently dismantled the Baltimore Ravens 20-3. The Jets come into this game on the heels of a huge road victory over 13-3 San Diego last week and their confidence couldn't be higher at this point. 

The Jets postseason success can be attributed to Ryan's stalwart defense and a consistent rushing attack that has taken the pressure off of rookie QB Mark Sanchez who hasn't been turning the ball over. The Jets have enough play-makers like WR Braylon Edwards and CB Darrelle Revis to win this one at the end if they keep it close. It will be up to Peyton Manning to get the Colts an early lead forcing the Jets to put the ball in Sanchez's hand in order to win.

Manning will need to control this game using his ability to read the defense and make the throws to beat the Jets' aggressive blitz packages. I've seen Peyton play too many times to underestimate his throwing ability and I found a stat that was really telling. Manning and the Colts have faced Rex Ryan defenses 5 times since 2005, in those games Manning was 82-132 for 1,136, 9 TDs and only 2 INTs while posting a 4-1 record (that only loss came in December when Manning was pulled with a 3rd quarter). I think Peyton will be too much for the Jets defense but the Colts won't be able to dominate this game. I'm taking the Jets with the points but I think the Colts will be packing their bags for Miami soon.

Colts 20, Jets 13