One theory about the NFL we should all think about

I am posting a segment from ESPN's Boston Sports Guy Bill Simmons' latest column he wrote in preparation for the NFL playoffs which kick off tomorrow. He discussed the "Nobody Believed In Us" theory he came up with after the 2007 NY Giants Super Bowl upset over the Patriots 2 years ago. From what I have seen over the last couple of seasons I think this notion is as valid as any statistic one might use. Keep the story of this year's Denver Broncos surprising 6-0 start and subsequent collapse (and how your opinion of the team change over that period) in mind when reading this and I think it will make a lot of sense.

"Revelation No. 3: The most potent force in January and February is the "Nobody Believes In Us" theory.

Again and again and again and again. Although we've never really figured out why. Every football team should be motivated in the playoffs, right?

My dopey theory: In the age of parity, every contender has roughly the same level of talent. There is no such thing as a juggernaut anymore. Even when the 2003/2004 Patriots rolled off their incredible 33-4 streak, three of their six playoff games (including both Super Bowls) came down to the final two minutes. Throw in the decline of home-field advantage and, more than ever, playoff football hinges on luck, breaks, injuries … and motivation. The past decade featured two of the most defining "Nobody Believed In Us" games ever played (Super Bowl 36, Super Bowl 42) as well as six teams (2000 Giants, 2001 Pats, 2003 Panthers, 2005 Steelers, 2007 Giants, 2008 Cardinals) that thrived on that mantra.

We always think of "Nobody Believed In Us" only working for the winning team, but the bizarro version is equally dangerous. You never want your team to be too pleased with itself (like the 2001 Rams or 2007 Pats) or overconfident for dubious reasons (see Ryan's quote above). Instead of the "Too Many People Believed In Us" theory, I'd name this one after Albert Ganz, the villain in my favorite movie of all time ("48 Hrs."). At the very end, Ganz is shot by Nick Nolte's character, looks down at the wound in disbelief and says, "I can't believe it … I got shot!" A couple of beats pass, then Nolte shoots him about 370 more times. So long, Ganz. (At least until he came back as Dexter's dad.) But you never want to be rooting for the team that has a Ganz moment: Like Tennessee or Carolina last year, or the Patriots in Super Bowl 42. I can't believe it … I got shot.

Could picking playoff games be as simple as determining the motivators for every matchup? For instance, this week's Bengals-Jets line shifted 1.5 points toward New York, a team that seems curiously overconfident for a team with a rookie QB. Could you see a convincing Cincy victory followed by Bengals players saying things like "The only people who believed in us this week were the people in this locker room" and "They did a lot of yapping this week and we wanted to shut them up"? Absolutely. That's football in the 2010s. A little motivation goes a long way."

Simmons' full column can be found on ESPN.com right now at http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/100108