Sunday, January 24, 2010

Conference Championship Preview: Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints



This is an NFC matchup that has been brewing since the beginning of the season. New Orleans and Minnesota both came out like gangbusters this year starting 13-0 and 10-1 respectively. These teams ranked #1 and #2 in scoring offense during the regular season and both are coming off of 31-point blowout victories at home in the divisional round. Both offenses are lead by talented, veteran quarterbacks (Drew Brees and Brett Favre) and have talented, diverse play-makers (Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Jeremy Shocky for the Saints; Sidney Rice, Adrian Peterson, Visanthe Shiancoe and Percy Harvin for the Vikings) and both play their home games in a dome.

I give defense edge to the Vikings who sport a bruising defensive line led by Pat and Kevin Williams that was first in the NFL is sacks with 48 (Pro-Bowl DE Jared Allen led the team with 14.5). The Saints defense ranked only 25th in the NFL but was noteworthy for pulling down 26 INTs (by 11 players). I think the offenses will dominate this game and there is no reason why each team can't put up 30 points. The Saints will have as much of a home-field as you can find in the NFL these days in the Superdome so expect it to be rocking.

This will be a back and forth matchup and I have a funny feeling the outcome will be determined by how Brett Favre plays in the fourth quarter. Favre has been notorious for turning the ball over in big playoff spots and the Saints have the type of defense that can force mistakes. A big star for the Saints could be S Darren Sharper. Sharper played his first 8 NFL seasons alongside Favre in Green Bay before spending 4 years in Minnesota prior to coming to New Orleans. Sharper tied for the league with 9 INTs this year (scoring 3 TDs) and has had 63 in his prolonged career. I foresee Favre either throwing a terrific TD pass late in this game or throwing an equally terrific interception. I'm picking the Saints to make more plays in the 4th quarter and come away with the victory even though it's hard to ignore the fact that Favre has throw 10 TDs and no INTs in his last 10 quarters.

Saints 36, Vikings 30

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